Artikel des Tages · 22.06.2026 07:04
The Predictable Surprise: Why Politics Keeps Falling Behind During Heatwaves
When France groans under a heatwave, a familiar scene repeats itself. Temperatures rise to record highs, weather services warn days in advance, experts have been urging preparation for years – and yet the impression…
When France groans under a heatwave, a familiar scene repeats itself. Temperatures rise to record highs, weather services warn days in advance, experts have been urging preparation for years – and yet the impression remains that the heat hits the country unexpectedly each time. Schools close at short notice, hospitals reach their capacity limits, municipalities organize emergency measures, and politicians assure that the situation is under control.
The real question is no longer whether a heatwave will occur. Rather, it is why the political response to a well-known risk still carries the character of a state of emergency.
It would be wrong to accuse state institutions of inactivity. Since the devastating heat disaster of 2003, which claimed tens of thousands of lives in France, early warning systems have been established, emergency plans developed, and coordination between authorities improved. Public administration today is undoubtedly better prepared than two decades ago.
And yet a contradiction remains. The more frequently extreme heat occurs, the clearer it becomes that adaptation to the new climatic reality is not keeping pace with its speed. The emergency mechanisms work better than before, but they remain primarily reactions to a crisis whose causes and recurrence have long been known.
The real deficit therefore lies less in crisis management and more in strategic foresight.
A Country for a Different Climate
France was planned and built for a moderate climate over decades. Cities arose under conditions where winter cold was considered a greater problem than summer heat. Concrete plazas, sealed surfaces, and dense construction were seen as expressions of modernity. Buildings were designed to store heat, not to repel it.
This logic has now reached its limits.
In many metropolitan areas, so-called heat islands emerge where temperatures are significantly higher than in surrounding areas. Tropical nights, during which temperatures do not fall below twenty degrees Celsius, are increasingly becoming the norm. This poses a growing health risk for the elderly, chronically ill, small children, and outdoor workers.
Climate research has pointed out for years that such developments are not temporary outliers. They are part of a long-term change in climatic conditions in Europe. Regions of France today experience temperatures that until a few decades ago were considered exceptions and were more associated with Southern Europe or North Africa.
The political consequence should actually be obvious: It is not the exception, but the norm that has changed.
The Tyranny of the Short Term
Why is adaptation still so difficult?
A major reason lies in the differing time logics of climate and politics. Climatic changes occur over decades. Political decisions, however, are often guided by election cycles, fiscal years, and short-term success proofs.
Emergency measures can be communicated quickly. Water distributions, cooled rooms, or additional rescue forces are visible and convey the ability to act. Fundamental adaptations, on the other hand, are costly, lengthy, and often politically ungrateful.
Those who today remove sealing from a schoolyard, create new green spaces, reconstruct streets, or renovate public buildings to be heat-resistant may only see the results years later. The financial burdens, however, arise immediately. This is precisely the political dilemma.
Democratic systems are fundamentally capable of managing long-term challenges. But they struggle with investments whose benefits become visible only well after the next election. Climate change highlights this structural weakness particularly clearly.
Adaptation Is Not Capitulation
For a long time, the political debate focused primarily on avoiding climate change. Reducing greenhouse gases was the central goal. This objective remains indispensable.
At the same time, however, the realization is growing that adaptation has also become necessary. Even if global emissions were to decline rapidly, many climatic changes would remain effective for decades.
Adaptation does not mean resignation. Rather, it is an expression of political realism. Cities must be greener, water systems modernized, buildings renovated, and public infrastructures adapted to new temperature conditions. Hospitals, care facilities, and schools need concepts that do not treat extreme heat as an exception.
Many European municipalities have begun developing corresponding strategies. Yet the pace often falls behind the needs. There remains a significant gap between scientific knowledge and practical implementation.
The Normality of Extremes
The current heatwave once again shows that the traditional notion of a “normal summer” is becoming increasingly outdated. What was once considered exceptional now occurs with increasing frequency.
The real danger is that politics and society become accustomed to a state of permanent improvisation. Each new heatwave is managed without addressing the structural causes of vulnerability. The crisis is administered, but not prepared for.
This is exactly where the political challenge for the coming years lies. Climate change is no longer a scenario for the future. It already changes the conditions under which states must plan their infrastructure, organize their healthcare, and design their cities.
Citizens therefore have a right to more than seasonal crisis communication. They can expect governments to translate the predictability of risks into long-term policy. Because if extreme heat has now become a permanent feature of European summers, then its management must no longer have the character of a surprise.
The true test is not to survive the current heatwave. It is to prepare for those that will most likely follow. As long as politics mainly reacts instead of shaping, it will continue to give the impression of being surprised by a reality known for years.
Author: P. Tiko